By Anatole Kaletsky
Presseurop , according to an article in The Times (under the title " Softly, softly a federal Europe Draw Near" - Slowly, slowly approaches a federal Europe)
More that the revision of treaties or claimed by Angela Merkel, the budgetary requirements of David Cameron, the real event of the recent summit in Brussels is the decisive step from Europe to the advent of a superstate.
While the British press was focused on national issues, real historical events occurred in Europe. The United Kingdom may be directed by its first coalition government since 70 years, but Europe is still better. The European Union has just achieved a decisive step towards single state by transferring the budgetary and fiscal policies from national to federal level.
A decision on the sly
The fact that one of the most controversial decisions in modern European history has been taken in a Such discretion and almost without debate is that the brand of hierarchical style adopted by the European political elites.
Despite all its shortcomings, the European version and elitist representative democracy could go down in history as a method far more effective than the American and British models, more populist when it comes to managing the delicate compromise required by the new geopolitical world.
The story begins - as the most recent events - the financial crisis. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, it was almost inevitable that Europe is won by the panic and sees its single currency greatly threatened.
The domino theory
The crisis has hit Europe in the fall of 2009 and peaked during the weekend of May 8-9, 2010 when the Greek government has been unable to repay loans maturing the next day. European leaders have understood that the failure of the Greek state would result in his downfall all the country's banks but also those of Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Central Europe. Within a few days if not hours, the Euro Banking Greek, English and Italian would be worth a fraction of those of German and Dutch banks. The euro would in fact ceased to exist.
the night of May 9, Europe was on the brink of the abyss. Its leaders, however, developed a financial mechanism of a $ 750 billion to help countries no longer able to refinance with private investors. More importantly, Angela Merkel has come to rest on its principles to accept the suspension of the "opt- bailout, added in extremis in the Treaty of Lisbon to assure Germans that they would not be financially responsible for the largesse of government" Club Med. "
Equally incredibly, the UK Treasury has agreed to participate in the European credit to control the budget proposals from Brussels, in effect creating a European federal budget.
" It was truly a night of miracles ," says Emma Bonino, former Italian EU Commissioner
A strengthening of central control
The bailout of the euro had no chance to survive if governments were not committed a minimum to sustain the collective guarantees on the debt of countries in the euro area. These guarantees could never function without fiscal transfer mechanism in the euro area, and these transfers were never accepted by Germany States and other creditors without a strengthening of central control over national budgets, which nobody had ever suggested.
The principle of these mechanisms was approved last week in Brussels. Most newspapers headlined on secondary issues such as defense of the British rebate by David Cameron or the insistence of Angela Merkel to revise the EU treaties. Yet the truth is that Germany has failed, once again. European governments have all accepted the idea that no country could be forced out of the euro area for non-payment.
Sooner or later the political union
Even if no one, European leaders, could not specify the terms of this agreement, it follows that EU should create mechanisms for mutual support and financial standing for the whole euro area and that they be included in future EU treaties. Far from protecting the taxpayers of German financial woes of their partners, Angela Merkel repeated requests for a revision of the treaty strengthens the commitment of European countries on future bailouts. Explicitly by modifying the non-bailout, the revisions requested by Angela Merkel will give the federal budget European legal status revoked.
Why the Germans should they accept new obligations so expensive?
There are two reasons. The first is that the German financial industry and depend crucially on the stability and prosperity in the euro area. The second is that the union policy is a goal that the German political and economic elites believe they intended to do long ago.
The Germans are not stupid. They will not play the permanent guardians of the most reckless without a significant strengthening of auditing.
The creation of a federal budget requires a certain degree of political centralization that seems perhaps difficult to imagine, but seems increasingly inevitable.
How to design, for example, that countries can make such a disparity in the age of retirement, level of pensions and social security system if the costs of these policies are guaranteed jointly?
From a strictly economic point of view, the convergence of the retirement age to 67 years in Europe is one of the more welcome the financial crisis.
European integration has always progressed in fits and starts and a major step towards political and fiscal federalism has become irreversible after the crisis year. That is exactly what the architects of the euro had in mind.
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